For days, they're been promising one to three inches of snow for today, Saturday, followed by a dry day tomorrow. And I'm leading a Carolina Mountain Club hike tomorrow.  On top of it, it's a joint hike with the Carolina Berg Wanderers from Charlotte. We're going to Kitsuma Peak out of Old Fort - at a lower altitude than Asheville.

What shall I do? Should I cancel it? Should I take a chance that the road and the forecast are correct? If I cancel the hike and the weather is reasonable, I'll really kick myself tomorrow. If I go with it and the roads are tricky, I'll worry that a hike is just not worth the potential problems.

CMC and most hiking clubs leave it up to the leader to cancel the hike for any reason. I feel it's important not to be too cautious but on the other hand, I need to be realistic.

So I keep checking the weather forecast obsessively, as if it will change within the hour. Right now, it''s stopped snowing and I've even seen the sun for a short while but still I'm concerned. I probably won't cancel. Let's hope I'm right.